A fundamental role of TSOs is the planning and development of a secure, environmentally sustainable and economic transmission system. At its creation in 2009, Regulation 714/2009 tasked ENTSO-E with the elaboration of a pan-European network development plan, or TYNDP. In 2013, Regulation 347/2013 on guidelines for trans-European energy infrastructure made the TYNDP the basis for the selection of European projects of common interest. It also mandated ENTSO-E to develop a cost-benefit methodology for the assessment of transmission infrastructure projects.
Europe’s Ten-Year Network Development Plan
What grid do we need to achieve Europe’s CO2 and interconnection targets? This is the question ENTSO-E has been tasked to help answer with its Ten-Year Network Development Plan. The TYNDP is a pan-European network development plan, providing a long-term vision of the power system. A legally mandated deliverable published by ENTSO-E every two years (Article 8, Regulation 714/2009), it is the foundation of European grid planning and the basis for transmission projects that are eligible to be labelled as ‘projects of common interest’ (PCI). The TYNDP 2018 has evolved significantly in its methodology, regarding the involvement of stakeholders, regulators and member states, as well as the indicators considered and the modelling approaches.
ENTSO-E shall adopt and publish a [EU]-wide network development plan every two years. (Article 8(10), Regulation 714/2009)
12 May – 12 June 2016: Public consultation on TYNDP scenarios
2 June 2017: Public workshop with stakeholders on the 2030 and 2040 scenarios
5 July 2017: Public workshop with Member States, NRAs and European Commission on the 2030 and 2040 scenarios
2 Oct – 10 Nov 2017: Public consultation on the TYNDP 2018 scenarios report
2 Feb – 28 Feb 2018: Public consultation on the Regional Investment Plans and pan-European report Europe Power System 2040
30 March 2018: Publication of final Scenarios Report
The three paths to deliver on Europe’s emission targets
The TYNDP 2018 features a new set of scenarios, with, for the first time, storylines co-constructed with stakeholders, member states and NRAs, and developed jointly with the European Network of TSOs for gas ENTSOG. Co-construction implied a change in methodology: for previous editions, we had proposed already defined ‘visions’ on which stakeholders were invited to comment. Instead, for the TYNDP 2018 ENTSO-E and ENTSOG have involved interested parties from the very beginning of the process in 2016, starting from a blank page and asking stakeholders to ‘Build your own 2030 and 2040 scenarios’. This approach resulted in three clear storylines which we named ‘sustainable transition’, ‘distributed generation’ and ‘global climate action’. In all scenarios, European climate targets are met or exceeded.
A fourth scenario considered, EUCO 30, is a core policy scenario produced by the European Commission, modelling the achievement of the 2030 climate and energy targets.
The draft scenarios were discussed with stakeholders and with member states representatives and NRAs. After further refinement, they were submitted to a public consultation in October-November 2017, with the consultation seeking to gather feedback on the scenarios themselves but also on the co-creation process that led to their development. The scenarios have been finalised based on the answers to the consultation and on additional checks and calculations, and will feed into the draft TYNDP2018 to be released mid-2018.
Better understanding the impact of demand and renewables
The scenarios benefited from several improvements to ENTSO-E and ENTSOG’s tools and methodologies. The main enhancements concern demand and RES. New approaches and algorithms were developed to more precisely forecast the penetration of electricity demand side technologies (including demand response, electric vehicles, heat pumps and home storage), as well as to refine the impact of temperature variations on electricity demand. Additionally, the TYNDP 2018 will be the first to consider several climate conditions. The electricity mix in each scenario is assessed using three different climate situations: a wet year, a dry year and a normal year.
Building the TYNDP 2018
To comply with Regulation (EU) 347/2013 Annex III.3 (3), electricity transmission and storage projects must be part of the latest available TYNDP to be eligible for inclusion in the EU’s list of projects of common interest (PCIs). PCIs are electricity projects that have significant benefits for at least two Member States. The guidelines for inclusion of projects in the TYNDP were revised thanks to project promoters’ input, collected during a workshop organised by ENTSO-E in June 2017.
From October to November 2017, ENTSO-E collected applications of transmission and storage projects for inclusion in the TYNDP 2018 package. 195 applications were received from transmission projects and 12 from storage projects. All project candidates for PCI-status will be evaluated based on the assumptions, analyses and methodology developed in the TYNDP10.
An enhanced assessment of system needs & regional investment plans
Based on the scenarios identified, ENTSO-E drafted and released in early 2018 the pan-European report Europe Power System 2040: completing the map. A novelty in the TYNDP package, the report examines the needs for additional capacity increases for each of the three 2040 scenarios. The study focuses on the 2040 timeframe, and identifies needs for grid expansion between 2030 and 2040.
It finds that the right set of increases of the transmission capacity between and within European countries could decrease market prices in most of the countries, strengthen security of supply and allow the integration of a high share of RES in the system. The cost of not investing in the power network is high, for instance in terms of consumers’ electricity bills, as the ‘No Grid’ extra bill would reach €43 billion a year in the average case. Costs are also environmental: all scenarios considered show that without grid extension, Europe will not meet its climate targets.
Released alongside the report Europe Power System 2040, the regional investment plans show the needs for additional capacity in six European regions, and include the promoted projects in each region that will be analysed in the TYNDP 2018.
Both the regional investment plans and the Europe Power system 2040 are now being edited to answer stakeholders’ comments, and will be released in their final form with the TYNDP 2018 report in mid-2018.
The TYNDP 2018 system needs package also includes new analysis aiming to better understand future operational challenges in an electricity system with a very large amount of RES (frequency stability, voltage). The report identifies decline in the amount of inertia which will be kept on the system which, in smaller synchronous areas, could lead to rapid and large frequency excursions following a normal generation loss.
10 The PCI selection is a process separate from the TYNDP process, under the responsibility of the EC Regional Groups led by the European Commission.
The Cost-Benefit analysis – What’s in it for citizens?
The assessment of projects included in the TYNDP uses a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) methodology drafted by ENTSO-E, in consultation with stakeholders and published by the European Commission. The CBA results are also used as the basis of the PCI selection process.
The TYNDP 2018 is the first one based on the CBA methodology 2.0, developed throughout 2016. Discussions with stakeholders held in 2017 led to the conclusion that further enhancements of the methodology would be necessary in the future. In particular, three key areas for improvement of the CBA methodology were identified by stakeholders: security of supply, socio-economic welfare and storage.
ENTSO-E has therefore started work on developing a third version of the CBA methodology, and plans to publish it for consultation in 2018. ENTSO-E’s objective, along with the stakeholders involved, is to prepare a methodology which will be fit for use in many successive TYNDPs. If adopted by the European Commission, this CBA 3.0 will be used in the TYNDP2020.
Interlinked model: exploring sector coupling
As part of the scenario building process with ENTSOG, sector coupling has been explored. This examines how the need for decarbonisation of various sectors leads to electrification, notably in the heating and transport sector. The viability of power to gas was explored, where the excess production of renewable electricity is used to create hydrogen.
In view of the further adaptation of this interlinkage, the ENTSOs have identified the need to further investigate the interlinkage between gas and electricity scenarios and infrastructure project assessment and seek to investigate all possible interactions between the gas and electricity sectors, including interactions between the gas and electricity infrastructure projects.
Considering the infrastructure projects, the main question addresses synergies and competition, e.g. can a gas pipeline replace an electricity line or can an electricity line replace a gas pipeline? Can you avoid building a new infrastructure by considering the existing infrastructure in both sectors? ENTSO-E and ENTSOG aim to outline criteria which could be used to identify gas and electricity projects with a strong interlinkage, and how the interlinkage between said projects may impact their respective valorisation.